Uncertainty Quantification

TL;DR for operators Models rarely fail because nobody ran a sensitivity analysis. They fail because the sensitivity analysis answered the convenient question instead of the relevant one. The paper behind gsaot introduces an R package for Optimal Transport-based global sensitivity analysis.1 Its practical value is not that it makes Sobol’ indices obsolete. It does not. The useful shift is narrower and more interesting: gsaot estimates how much the entire output distribution changes when an input is known, rather than asking only how much of the output variance can be attributed to that input. ...

TL;DR for operators LoRA and prompts are attractive because they make model adaptation feel almost too easy: add a few examples, attach a small adapter, nudge the model into a domain, and call it customised. The uncomfortable part is that adaptation changes not only what a model says, but how confidently it says it. A compliance assistant that becomes slightly more domain-specific but far more overconfident has not been improved. It has been promoted beyond its competence, a classic corporate move. ...