The AI world has always been unusual, but starting in early 2025, it became increasingly so. LLM developers began releasing and updating models at unprecedented paces, while more giants and startups joined the AI rush—from foundational generative models (text, image, audio, video) to specific applications. It’s a new kind of gold rush, but fueled by GPUs and transformer architectures.
On February 1st, DeepSeek released its open-source model DeepSeek R1, quickly recognized for rivaling—or even exceeding—the reasoning power of ChatGPT-o1. The impact was immediate. Just days later, a screenshot from Reddit showed Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, admitting:
“We may have been on the wrong side of history here.”
Fast-forward to March 31st: OpenAI announced a jaw-dropping $40 billion raise, aiming to “pave the way toward AGI that benefits all of humanity.”
🔗 Read OpenAI’s official announcement
Then, on April 1st—no joke—Sam Altman announced on X that OpenAI would finally release a new open-weight model, the first since GPT-2.
This isn’t just a sequence of PR moments. It’s a textbook case of the Innovator’s Dilemma—a concept coined by Clayton Christensen that describes the challenge incumbents face when disruptive innovation threatens their dominant, profitable position.
The Open Source Temptation
So, why are companies like DeepSeek, Meta, and IBM releasing open-weight models, while OpenAI has largely stayed closed?
⚠️ Note: An open-weight model is not the same as open-source. Meta’s LLaMA, IBM’s Granite, and DeepSeek’s R1 are fully open-source—allowing users to modify and redistribute them. OpenAI’s planned model will be open-weight, meaning users can customize training parameters, but not access the underlying code or dataset.
What Open-Sourcing Offers:
- Developer Ecosystem Growth: Open models attract thousands of researchers and devs. This fosters adoption, idea generation, and dominance.
- Public Goodwill: In an era of AI skepticism, transparency equals trust.
- Platform Status: When others build on your model, you shape the future (see: Linux, Android, Hugging Face).
Still, releasing open weights is a strong starting point—and may signal a broader openness to come. But here’s the catch: openness often sacrifices control and profit.
Closed for Business: The Case for Proprietary Models
OpenAI has built a wildly successful closed-loop business:
- ChatGPT Plus subscriptions
- API licensing through Azure
- Enterprise partnerships
Keeping models private enables:
- Revenue Control through pay-per-use access
- Safety Oversight, with managed moderation and updates
- IP Protection, guarding architectural secrets and optimizations
It’s no surprise OpenAI hesitated. In business, openness is an ideal; profit is a requirement.
Strategic Tradeoff: The Hybrid Play
The signals are clear: OpenAI is now walking the tightrope.
- Core models (e.g., GPT-4.5 and GPT-o1) remain closed.
- A new open-weight model is coming—meant to win back mindshare in the developer and research communities.
GPT-4.5 excels at humanlike text generation, while GPT-o1 is tuned for more versatile and reasoning-heavy tasks.
This hybrid strategy borrows from Big Tech:
- Meta open-sources LLaMA but holds back training data
- Tesla opens patents but controls manufacturing
- Amazon offers open SDKs, but locks users into its cloud
OpenAI appears ready to diversify influence without cannibalizing its core revenue.
🧭 2x2 Strategy Matrix: Open vs Closed, Community vs Profit
| Community Focus | Profit Focus | |
|---|---|---|
| Open Source | ✅ High adoption, strong goodwill | ⚠️ Difficult to monetize, licensing issues |
| Closed Source | ❌ Low adoption, missed collaboration | ✅ High margin, controlled ecosystem |
Final Thought: Who Writes the Future?
In the race to AGI, having the best model may not be enough. The real power lies in shaping how models are used, who builds on them, and which ecosystems they dominate.
OpenAI’s decision to re-enter the open-weight arena is a strategic pivot—a sign it recognizes that control without community is fragile, and profit without participation is temporary.
Like every innovator before them, they now face the ultimate question:
Do you protect the castle, or build a kingdom?
📣 Want to influence how OpenAI’s open model evolves? They’re gathering developer feedback now: openai.com/open-model-feedback
This article is part of the Cognaptus Insights series—where business meets AI.