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When AI Knows It Doesn’t Know: Turning Uncertainty into Strategic Advantage

In AI circles, accuracy improvements are often the headline. But in high-stakes sectors—healthcare, finance, autonomous transport—the more transformative capability is an AI that knows when not to act. Stephan Rabanser’s PhD thesis on uncertainty-driven reliability offers both a conceptual foundation and an applied roadmap for achieving this. From Performance Metrics to Operational Safety Traditional evaluation metrics such as accuracy or F1-score fail to capture the asymmetric risks of errors. A 2% misclassification rate can be negligible in e-commerce recommendations but catastrophic in medical triage. Selective prediction reframes the objective: not just high performance, but performance with self-awareness. The approach integrates confidence scoring and abstention thresholds, creating a controllable trade-off between automation and human oversight. ...

August 12, 2025 · 3 min · Zelina
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When Your AI Disagrees with Your Portfolio

What happens when your AI co-pilot thinks it’s the pilot? In financial decision-making, autonomy isn’t always a virtue. A striking new study titled “Your AI, Not Your View” reveals that even the most advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) may quietly sabotage your investment strategy — not by hallucinating facts, but by overriding your intent with stubborn preferences baked into their training. Hidden Hands Behind the Recommendations The paper introduces a systematic framework to identify and measure confirmation bias in LLMs used for investment analysis. Instead of just summarizing news or spitting out buy/sell signals, the study asks: what if the model already has a favorite? More specifically: ...

July 29, 2025 · 4 min · Zelina