The AI Crystal Ball Problem: What the Public Thinks the Future Looks Like
Opening — Why this matters now Ask ten AI researchers when artificial general intelligence will arrive and you’ll get eleven answers. Ask the public, however, and you get something more structured: expectations shaped by media narratives, visible technological progress, and everyday economic anxiety. Understanding those expectations is not merely sociological curiosity. Public beliefs about when AI will transform society influence policy pressure, investment cycles, workforce preparation, and technology adoption. If governments believe AGI is decades away while voters believe it is imminent—or vice versa—policy responses will drift out of alignment with public sentiment. ...