The Cost of Knowing You’re Wrong: Why Two Samples Beat Eight in AI Reasoning
An AI system gives an answer. The answer looks plausible. The reasoning trace is long enough to seem serious. The user asks the next question, which is the one that actually matters: How sure is it? For ordinary software, this question is already annoying. For reasoning language models, it is worse. These models do not just emit a short response; they may spend thousands of tokens walking through a problem before landing on an answer. Asking them again is not free. Asking them eight times is not diligence. It is a budget line with philosophical decoration. ...