Crystal Ball, Meet Cron Job: What FutureX Reveals About ‘Live’ Forecasting Agents
The one-sentence take A new live benchmark, FutureX, swaps lab-style trivia for rolling, real-world future events, forcing agentic LLMs to search, reason, and hedge under uncertainty that actually moves—and the results expose where today’s “agents” are still brittle. Why FutureX matters now Enterprise teams are deploying agents to answer questions whose truth changes by the hour—markets, elections, sports, product launches. Static leaderboards don’t measure that. FutureX runs as a cron job on reality: it collects new events every day, has agents make predictions, and grades them after events resolve. That turns evaluation from a screenshot into a time series and makes overfitting to benchmark quirks a lot harder. ...