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Confidence Has a Timing Problem: What SFT, RL, and Distillation Change in Reasoning Models

TL;DR for operators A reasoning model can have useful confidence at one point in its workflow and misleading confidence at another. In a controlled comparison using the same Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct backbone and reasoning-data mixture, on-policy distillation produced the strongest average signal for estimating difficulty before reasoning, supervised fine-tuning supplied particularly useful confidence for stopping weak traces during generation, and reinforcement learning gained the most from confidence-based filtering after traces were complete.1 ...

August 14, 2026 · 9 min · Zelina
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You Can’t Reweight a Dead End: TRD and the Prefix Failure Problem

TL;DR for operators The paper’s main message is simple: if a reasoning model has already walked into a dead end, per-token distillation often keeps supervising it from inside the dead end. A clever loss cap is not a map. A top-k filter is not a tow truck. Trajectory-Refined Distillation, or TRD, repairs the student’s own rollout before using it for distillation. The pipeline is: sample the student’s attempt, ask a teacher or privileged self-teacher to rewrite the trajectory into a better one, then train on the refined trajectory rather than on the original failed rollout. The technical contribution is not “better prompting”, although prompts are used. It is the shift from token-level correction to trajectory-level correction. ...

June 19, 2026 · 15 min · Zelina