Razor Burn: Why LLMs Nick Themselves on Induction and Abduction
Diagnosis is where AI systems start to look clever, then suddenly start charging consultancy rates. Give a model a handful of symptoms, incident logs, customer complaints, or audit traces, and ask it what explains them. It will usually produce something plausible. Sometimes several plausible things. Occasionally an entire decorative shrubbery of plausible things. The practical question is not whether the model can invent an explanation. That bar is underground. The harder question is whether it can find the simplest explanation that accounts for the evidence without adding unnecessary machinery. ...