When the Test Window Changes the Problem
TL;DR for operators A forecasting benchmark can change the problem being measured without changing the nominal dataset. In the rideshare data examined here, zeros make up 46.9% of the full dataset but only 5.3% of the standard rolling-origin evaluation windows. Under a series-wise split, the evaluation-window zero rate rises to 59.1%, and the interpretation of an autoregressive hurdle model reverses. ...