https://cognaptus.com/tags/forecastbench/ Recent content in ForecastBench on Cognaptus Hugo -- 0.145.0 en-us Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://cognaptus.com/blog/2026-04-23-forecasting-the-forecast-why-agentic-ai-is-learning-to-doubt-itself/ Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://cognaptus.com/blog/2026-04-23-forecasting-the-forecast-why-agentic-ai-is-learning-to-doubt-itself/ A mechanism-first reading of Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster, showing why structured belief states, multi-trial aggregation, and calibration matter more than another confident one-shot answer.