Cognaptus Insights

Half-Life Crisis: Why AI Agents Fade with Time (and What It Means for Automation) “The longer the task, the harder they fall.” In the world of automation, we often focus on how capable AI agents are — but rarely on how long they can sustain that capability. A new paper by Toby Ord, drawing from the empirical work of Kwa et al. (2025), introduces a profound insight: AI agents have a “half-life” — a predictable drop-off in success as task duration increases. Like radioactive decay, it follows an exponential curve. ...

The Chain-of-Thought (CoT) paradigm has become a cornerstone in improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). But as CoT matures, one question looms larger: Does every problem really need an elaborate chain? In this article, we dive into a new method called AdaR1, which rethinks the CoT strategy by asking not only how to reason—but how much. ...

Introduction: The Retail Map Is Not the Territory In fast-growing cities like Nairobi, Jakarta, or Lagos, deciding where to plant the next store is less about gut feeling and more about navigating an entangled network of demand, accessibility, cost, and government regulations. At Cognaptus, we developed a multi-layered AI-driven framework that not only mimics real-world logistics but also learns and forecasts future retail viability. This article explores how we combined predictive analytics, geospatial clustering, graph theory, and multi-objective optimization to determine where new retail nodes should thrive — balancing today’s needs with tomorrow’s complexities. ...

The next generation of quantitative investment agents must be more than data-driven—they must be logic-aware and structurally adaptive. Two recently published research efforts provide important insights into how reasoning patterns and evolving workflows can be integrated to create intelligent, verticalized financial agents. Kimina-Prover explores how reinforcement learning can embed formal reasoning capabilities within a language model for theorem proving. Learning to Be a Doctor shows how workflows can evolve dynamically based on diagnostic feedback, creating adaptable multi-agent frameworks. While each stems from distinct domains—formal logic and medical diagnostics—their approaches are deeply relevant to two classic quant strategies: the Black-Litterman portfolio optimizer and a sentiment/technical-driven Bitcoin perpetual futures trader. ...

In the wild, survival doesn’t require you to outrun the lion—it just means outrunning the slowest gazelle. Surprisingly, this logic also applies to business strategy. When we introduce AI into business decision-making, we’re not just dealing with isolated optimization problems—we’re engaging in a complex game, with rivals, competitors, and market players who also make moves. One key trap in this game is assuming that opponents are perfect. That assumption sounds safe—but it can be paralyzing. ...