Causal Reasoning

Opening — Why this matters now Reinforcement learning has spent the last decade obsessing over better policies, better value functions, and better credit assignment. Physics, meanwhile, has been busy questioning whether time itself needs to behave nicely. This paper sits uncomfortably—and productively—between the two. At a moment when agentic AI systems are being deployed in distributed, partially observable, and poorly synchronized environments, the assumption of a fixed causal order is starting to look less like a law of nature and more like a convenience. Wilson’s work asks a precise and unsettling question: what if decision-making agents and causal structure are the same mathematical object viewed from different sides? ...

Large language models (LLMs) have graduated from being glorified autocomplete engines to becoming fully-fledged agents. They write code, control mobile devices, execute multi-step plans. But with this newfound autonomy comes a fundamental problem: they act—and actions have consequences. Recent research from KAIST introduces Causal Influence Prompting (CIP), a method that doesn’t just nudge LLMs toward safety through general heuristics or fuzzy ethical reminders. Instead, it formalizes decision-making by embedding causal influence diagrams (CIDs) into the prompt pipeline. The result? A structured, explainable safety layer that turns abstract AI alignment talk into something operational. ...

In the latest paper “Language Agents Mirror Human Causal Reasoning Biases” (Chen et al., 2025), researchers uncovered a persistent issue affecting even the most advanced language model (LM) agents: a disjunctive bias—a tendency to prefer “OR”-type causal explanations over equally valid or even stronger “AND”-type ones. Surprisingly, this mirrors adult human reasoning patterns and undermines the agents’ ability to draw correct conclusions in scientific-style causal discovery tasks. ...