Calibration

Opening — Why this matters now Modern transformers are confident. Too confident. In high-stakes deployments—question answering, medical triage, compliance screening—this confidence routinely outruns correctness. The problem is not accuracy; it is miscalibration. Models say “I’m sure” when they shouldn’t. Most fixes arrive late in the pipeline: temperature scaling, Platt scaling, confidence rescaling after the model has already reasoned itself into a corner. What if uncertainty could intervene earlier—during reasoning rather than after the verdict? ...

Opening — Why this matters now Large Language Models have learned to think out loud. Unfortunately, they still think alone. Most modern reasoning techniques—Chain-of-Thought, ReAct, self-reflection, debate—treat each query as a sealed container. The model reasons, critiques itself, revises, and moves on. This is computationally tidy. It is also statistically wasteful. In real decision systems—fraud detection, medical triage, compliance review—we never evaluate one case in isolation. We compare. We look for outliers. We ask why one answer feels less convincing than the rest. ...

Generative AI still ships answers without warranties. Edgar Dobriban’s new review, “Statistical Methods in Generative AI,” argues that classical statistics is the fastest route to reliability—especially under black‑box access. It maps four leverage points: (1) changing model behavior with guarantees, (2) quantifying uncertainty, (3) evaluating models under small data and leakage risk, and (4) intervening and experimenting to probe mechanisms. The executive takeaway If you manage LLM products, your reliability roadmap isn’t just RLHF and prompt magic—it’s quantiles, confidence intervals, calibration curves, and causal interventions. Wrap these around any model (open or closed) to control refusal rates, surface uncertainty that matters, and measure performance credibly when eval budgets are tight. ...

The big idea RAG pipelines are only as reliable as their weakest link: generation that confidently asserts things the sources don’t support. HALT‑RAG proposes an unusually pragmatic fix: don’t fine‑tune a big model—ensemble two strong, frozen NLI models, add lightweight lexical features, train a tiny task‑adapted meta‑classifier, and calibrate it so you can abstain when uncertain. The result isn’t just accuracy; it’s a governable safety control you can dial to meet business risk. ...