The Cost of Knowing You’re Wrong: Why Two Samples Beat Eight in AI Reasoning
Opening — Why this matters now Reasoning models are getting expensive. Not just in dollars, but in attention, latency, and operational complexity. The industry’s instinctive response? Sample more. Ask the model multiple times, average the answers, and hope confidence emerges from repetition. It’s a comforting idea—almost democratic. But as this paper quietly demonstrates, more votes don’t necessarily lead to better judgment. Sometimes, two well-chosen signals outperform eight redundant ones. ...