Forecasting the Forecast: Why Agentic AI Is Learning to Doubt Itself
Forecasting is where executive optimism goes to be measured. A sales team says the pipeline is healthy. A policy team says the election risk is manageable. A trading desk says the market has mostly priced in the event. Everyone has a probability. Few people have a disciplined process for updating it. That is also the problem with many AI forecasters. They can produce a number quickly, sometimes impressively, sometimes with the emotional stability of a quarterly sales forecast. But the harder question is not whether an AI can answer, “What is the probability?” The harder question is whether it can revise that probability as evidence arrives, remember why it changed its mind, and avoid turning a confidence score into decorative typography. ...
